Utah goes blue?

Politics

The Beehive Standard Weekly has up a lengthy article about how Utah might go… Are you ready for this… BLUE! Blue as in Democrat Blue! Yeah, shocking. But I’m inclind to believe this is a real possibility. My younger brother, who I might consider left-leaning for a Mormon (which means way to the right, but not quite John Birch Society right-wing) is voting for Obama, as is my younger sister. Both are TBMs.

The argument: McCain has snubbed Mormons and evangelicals rejected them. Without any options left on the right, they are now going to have to turn to the most moderate candidate on the left – Obama. Both of my siblings are voting for Obama… and both are shocked that we actually agree on something (though my reasons for voting for Obama and their reasons are substantially different).

So, any bets at this point on whether Utah turns out blue in November? I’ll put $10 down it still goes red, but it kind of depends on the Democratic candidate (if it’s Clinton – red all the way; if it’s Obama – I could lose my money). Anyone interested?

18 thoughts on “Utah goes blue?

  1. I still think it’s wishful thinking. Maybe if the election were held tomorrow… But there will be a bit of a cooling off period, and I think the memories will be short-term.

  2. That would be so cool if Utah went to Obama!!

    Seth is probably right, though, that Mormons will probably go back to their party loyalty by November. It’s too bad for them, too, because as my brother explained, it’s a good way to tell politicians that there’s no point in ever worrying about the Mormons and their concerns:

    The stars may be aligning this year and if McCain loses Mondale-style, the GOP will be reinventing itself with a new party establishment, the way the Democrats did after 1994. If, after this primary season, Utah is one of the few states to go for McCain, the lesson Republicans can take away is, “As we’re rebuilding and reinventing ourselves, the one group we don’t have to listen to is the Mormons; we have their vote no matter what we do.”

  3. Alright, Wayne, you’re on! (I’ll pay you $10 for your optimism…)

    My bet is with Seth, but chanson’s brother has a good point – if Republicans can count on Mormons no matter what, that means ignore the Mormons.

  4. Even though I would like to keep a good poker face; I have to admit that I don’t really think that any Democratic candidate has a chance of taking Utah. I would bet more that Obama would take Moab, Park City, and Salt lake City.

    I am betting to be sporting.

    I don’t doubt that the Republican party takes Utah for granted; it has not always been that way; Back when Bush one ran for re-election, he visited Salt Lake city Three times in two months.

  5. If McCain were to piss on the tabernacle organ, Utah would vote blue. Otherwise, Utah’s electoral votes are going to remain red this year.

  6. When it comes down to the wire, I believe a lot of voters will vote what they know. They may be fed up with their party and what it does. But in the end, it’s a matter of who (and which party) a voter dislikes more. My bet is that while many Americans (specifically many people in Utah) dislike what the Republicans are doing – they won’t necessarily vote Democrat.

    It’s my bet that if there was a third party – say Mitt Romney (or Orrin Hatch) decided to run independent – that might make Utah’s votes interesting. I’m not saying that most Utahans will vote for someone who is an active mormon- but a mormon with a conservative lean….

  7. I’m thinking it will only go Blue if they don’t read Obama’s platform or if his campaign doesn’t make issues too much of a, well, issue after the convention. His platform, although way too moderate for my tastes on Poverty and Health Care, is pretty for to the left (by American standards, anyway) on most other issues. If they think of him as “moderate” (by Utah standards) they may be in for quite a shock.

  8. profxm — ROTFL!!! We just need to circulate this more — then we have a shot at Utah going blue!!! Also, Aerin is right — if there were a conservative independent competing with McCain, then maybe Obama would win Utah…

  9. Profxm- Ha! That image made this former Mormon and dyed in the wool Democrats blood boil.

    My rational mind laughed; my Mormon genes wants to hit McCain.

  10. All SOLID reasons to abandon the Electoral College.

    It’s Barely out of the Dark Ages.

    more l8tr

  11. May be, I am reading too much into this but it may not be an accident that Romney has been endorsing McCain within a week after a Mormon e-mail and blog campaign has begun to agitate for Obama to punish Republicans.

    I agree that Utah will not turn blue, not even for Obama and not to stick it to Huckabee and McCain.

    However, there will be some Mormons who will change their vote. While that may not make a difference in Utah, it will in Arizona, Colorado, and most importantly in Nevada.

    While it is pretty hard to argue any longer that Mitt needs to be avenged, there will be some Mormons who will act on that desire. There is a protest vote tradition in Utah (remember Bo Gritz and Merrill Cook), which indicates a restlessness among some Mormons.

    If that is indicative of Mormons throughout the Rocky Mountain west then Obama will win several states in the region.

  12. I’ve lived here in Utah since 1983 and it seems like it’s rare for presidential candidates to not snub Utah. It seems Republicans tend to take Utah for granted and Democrats tend to think “why bother?” The state is overwhelmingly Republican.

    From what I’ve heard and seen, Obama is the most far left of all the Democrats.

    It seems to me that Mormons, if not Utahns in general, are primarily values voters. I have a hard time seeing Mormons and other ultra conservative Utahns voting for someone who is pro gay rights and pro choice, no matter how attractive his other policies might be.

    Just my .02.

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